The news: GSK is spending up to $10.6 billion to acquire Nuvalent, whose two lung cancer treatments are already under FDA review. If approved, both drugs could launch this year, adding to GSK's growing oncology portfolio that includes blood, gynecologic, and tumor-targeted therapies.

Why it matters: Slowing vaccine sales and upcoming HIV patent expirations are driving GSK to strengthen its oncology business.

GSK projects its vaccine revenues to be flat or decline by low single digits in 2026. More than half of its sales come from the US, where changes to vaccine policy have created uncertainty for future demand and sales growth. At the same time, GSK faces upcoming patent expirations in 2028 tied to dolutegravir, the HIV medicine sold as Tivicay and included in blockbuster combination treatments such as Dovato and Triumeq. Dovato is GSK's best-selling HIV drug, contributing more than $3.1 billion in sales last year as the company's HIV business grew 22% to $8.9 billion.

GSK’s oncology drug sales rose 43% last year to around $2.3 billion as it expanded its cancer business through acquisitions and internal R&D. The Nuvalent purchase, however, is GSK's largest acquisition in eight years, marking a significant step up from earlier oncology deals, including Sierra Oncology and its myelofibrosis treatment for up to $1.9 billion in 2022, and gastrointestinal cancer drug developer IDRx for up to $1.2 billion.

Implications for pharma companies: The pharma rush into oncology shows no signs of slowing. Cancer acquisitions and pipeline dealmaking reached $66 billion through April, roughly double last year's pace, per Bloomberg, as companies including Eli Lilly, Gilead, Merck, Novartis, and now GSK race to expand their oncology portfolios. But unlike many recent oncology acquisitions focused on earlier-stage assets, Nuvalent's treatments are already under FDA review, giving GSK a faster path to bringing new oncology products to market. For competitors, GSK’s acquisition highlights the tradeoff between paying a premium for near-market assets and taking on the greater development risk of earlier-stage deals.

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