Holiday Shopping 2026

How Consumer Caution and Shifts in Ecommerce Will Shape the Season

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About This Report
Consumer spending will come under greater pressure during the 2026 holiday season, slowing retail and ecommerce sales growth compared with the rest of the year.

Strategic spending among budget-conscious US consumers will drive a slight deceleration in retail and ecommerce sales growth during the 2026 holiday season. Retailers and brands will need to strategize how to stand out in this environment and optimize budget allocation for holiday marketing and promotions.

Key Question: How will US consumers spend during the 2026 holiday shopping season?

Key Stat: Total US retail sales for November and December 2026 will rise by 4.1%, marking the second consecutive year in which holiday season growth trails the full-year average.

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Sky Canaves

Contributors

Suzy Davidkhanian
VP, Content
Blake Droesch
Kyndall Krist
Senior Copy Editor
Brian Lau
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Cindy Liu
Senior Forecasting Analyst
Wendy Malloy
Director, Reports Editor
Emma Noyes
Senior Graphic Designer, Data Visualization
Amy Rotondo
Director, US Research
Matt Torpey
Senior Data Visualization Editor
Johann Valderrama
Data Visualization Editor
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