The economic fallout from the United States and Israel’s war with Iran is rippling across the global economy, heightening recession risks in the US and intensifying strain abroad. The impacts extend across the marketing and commerce landscapes.

In this live FAQ, we’ll track how the latest developments of the conflict play out across companies operating in North America. Don’t forget to check out our separate FAQs for countries operating in Europe and the Middle East and Asia.

Could prolonged conflict trigger a recession?

Yes, but a recession is far from certain. The conflict is pushing up oil prices at a time when the economy is already weakening, with a slowing labor market and soft GDP growth in Q4 2025.

There is little consensus on what it would take to tip the US into recession. In a Wall Street Journal survey of 50 economists conducted March 16–18, respondents said oil would need to rise to anywhere from $90 to $200 per barrel, with an average of $138, to push recession odds above 50% (on March 24, it was nearly $93). Estimates for how long prices would need to stay elevated ranged from four to 55 weeks, averaging 14 weeks.

Is consumer spending shifting due to economic uncertainty from the war?

The rapid rise in gas prices is reinforcing inflation concerns, while a softening labor market is making consumers concerned about their job security. Together, these forces are pushing consumers to prioritize essentials, save windfalls like tax refunds, and scrutinize discretionary purchases more closely.

Within weeks of the conflict’s onset, 65% of consumers said they had already changed their shopping habits, with another 18% planning to do so, per a survey conducted on behalf of Omnisend.

For now, these cutbacks are concentrated in discretionary categories: 42% of respondents said they would reduce spending on dining out, followed by 18% on travel and about 9% on entertainment and fashion, per a March Omnisend survey.

How are rising fuel and shipping costs from the Iran conflict impacting US retail and ecommerce, and which sectors are most exposed?

Consumers say they’re pulling back on discretionary spending in the wake of rising gas prices. Historically this has hit mid-market segments like apparel, home goods, department stores, general merchandise, and casual dining the hardest. These categories rely on price-sensitive consumers who are quick to trade down, leaving them especially exposed as demand softens.

At the same time, retailers are dealing with rising logistics and fulfillment costs. Even modest increases in oil prices can quickly flow through to higher last-mile delivery, freight, and inventory expenses, while shipping disruptions such as longer routes, capacity constraints, and surcharges slow fulfillment and add volatility, especially for cross-border ecommerce. The result is tighter margins and more uneven growth.

What happens when the Strait of Hormuz opens up?

Trump on Tuesday said that Iran offered the US a “very big present worth a tremendous amount of money,” indicating that it was related to oil and gas. That’s led to speculation that Iran offered to reopen the strait as a show of good faith in negotiating an end to the war.

So what happens after the strait reopens? In the short term, nothing. Oil prices may drop as a knee-jerk reaction, but any benefit that makes its way to retailers or consumers will be short lived. The prolonged closure of the strait combined with attacks on oil infrastructure led multiple Gulf countries to reduce or halt oil production.

Even if the strait were to reopen tomorrow, getting that capacity back online will take weeks or months. Then, there’s navigating the strait itself. If Iran has mined the strait, operations to clear the strait would take months. After that, insurance rates for vessels will remain at multiples above where they were before the conflict.

How can advertisers tighten brand safety controls around war-related content?

Advertisers are operating in a period of heightened caution that necessitates tight control across platforms and targeting. Expanding exclusion lists around war-related topics, blocking keywords, and blocking ads based on sensitive content categories on platforms like Google and Meta will help advertisers avoid appearing near war-related content.

Even without intent, brands can face backlash if their ads appear alongside sensitive news—as seen when Applebee’s received criticism for a poorly timed commercial airing in proximity to news about the Russia-Ukraine war. This underscores the need for proactive controls.

Advertisers must shift to contextual targeting to reinforce brand safety and suitability. Rather than targeting users based on their online behaviors, advertisers can target safe content environments only—analyzing text, images, and content themes to ensure brand alignment. This reduces the risk of ads appearing near content related to war or violence, even if this content is relevant to the specific user.

Are brands pulling back ad spend amid macro uncertainty? If consumer spending tightens and prices rise, where are marketers likely to redirect budgets?

Specific industries are likely to pull back ad spending. US international travel, for instance, is particularly disrupted as the conflict impacts flights to the Middle East. As a result, tourism- and travel-related ad spending faces imminent cuts. Automotive brands are also feeling the impact.

Should spending tighten, marketers will likely shift budgets to channels with measurable performance and near-term returns. Digital performance media like social ads will gain share because they offer direct ROI; strategies like paid search and retail media will become more valuable because they reach consumers at high-intent moments that are closer to purchase.

US auto ad spending has slowed in recent years—could oil price spikes further dampen spending?

Oil price volatility is likely to hurt the US car market, which is already under significant macroeconomic pressure. The cost of owning a vehicle has jumped 40% since January 2020, per Navy Federal Credit Union, and 53% of US consumers said cost of living was stopping them from purchasing a new vehicle, per a February TransUnion survey.

That lower consumer appetite will translate to lower ad spending growth for both auto manufacturers and insurers alike—two sectors once synonymous with TV ad spending. Our August 2025 forecast shows US auto industry traditional media ad spending will continue its decline this year. If consumers pull back further on spending, the auto sector will rely more on lower-cost marketing tactics like performance marketing and loyalty programs to keep consumers interested.

Electric vehicles could offer a bright spot—searches for EVs jumped 20% in the three weeks after the start of the war, per CarEdge, and February was Hyundai’s best month for US “electrified” vehicle sales—but high costs are still a pain point.

Should companies prepare for cloud or service outages?

Brands need to treat cloud and service outages as an inevitability—not an edge case—and design both their architecture and communications around that reality.

Recent disruptions at AWS, Cloudflare, and other backbone providers as a result of drone attacks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain in early March showed that even “web‑scale” players aren’t immune, and that brands like Zoom and HubSpot, SaaS platforms, fintechs, and martech tools can go dark when a single dependency fails.

At an engineering level, that means building for multi‑region or even multi‑cloud resilience (e.g., running critical workloads across at least two AWS regions or mixing AWS and Azure or Google Cloud). Lacking service redundancy during an outage could lead to prolonged downtime, lost productivity, stalled shopping carts, and reputational damage.