The 2026 FIFA World Cup is breaking records as the largest tournament in history with 48 teams, but economic pressures and shifting demographics are reshaping expectations for what was projected to be a $30 billion windfall for host nations.

"Over the last 12 months, we've seen a flurry of activity from outside the retail sector," said our analyst Sarah Marzano on a recent episode of "In the Game." While early forecasts painted a rosy picture, with FIFA projecting over $30 billion in economic impact and the US Travel Association expecting visitors to spend $5,000 per trip, the reality has proven more complex as tariffs, inflation, and geopolitical tensions dampen international travel.

The tournament, co-hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico from June 11 to July 19, features 104 matches across three countries, with over five million fans expected to attend in person.

International travel falls short of projections

The most significant gap between expectations and reality centers on international visitors. FIFA had estimated that 40% of World Cup attendees would be international travelers, but that target won't be met.

"International travel numbers are down," said our analyst Oscar Orozco. "What that means is that it appears to be local fans, or maybe some of them are casual compared to your average World Cup fan that normally attends."

Marketers who built strategies around international audiences may need to pivot toward domestic, multicultural communities. The tournament is still drawing massive crowds, Austria versus Jordan filled its stadium to 98% capacity, but the audience composition has fundamentally changed.

Dynamic pricing creates accessibility barriers

FIFA's introduction of dynamic pricing for the first time in World Cup history has created affordability challenges. Some tickets skyrocketed to $10,000, while even the cheapest options for matches in cities like New York exceeded prices for the previous World Cup final.

"There's been kind of a barrier for American fans at home who might be able to more easily go to these games," said EMARKETER analyst Drew Spink. "If they're not really tuned in or planning on going in the first place, I think that high price tag might be enough to deter them."

The pricing strategy coincides with broader economic pressures. Average worldwide airplane tickets were up 25% YoY in early 2025, while ongoing conflicts and elevated energy costs have made consumers more price-sensitive across entertainment and travel categories.

American viewership defies low expectations

Despite pre-tournament surveys showing minimal interest, with just 10% of Americans expressing enthusiasm and 55% reporting no interest at all, per Fifty5Blue, actual viewership has exceeded projections dramatically.

Analysts say Fox's viewership is up over 130% compared to the Qatar World Cup, while Spanish-language broadcaster Telemundo has seen increases exceeding 250%. Fox now projects 150 million Americans will watch some portion of the coverage, approaching the 170 million who typically engage with the entire NFL season.

"Once there's a horse for them to ride behind, then they will actually engage," Spink said, attributing the surge to the US men's team's strong 2-0 start. "Americans do love sports, and they do love winning."

The US has become the biggest foreign market for Europe's four largest soccer leagues, and spending on soccer media rights in America has risen fourfold in the past decade, now exceeding baseball rights spending. While Americans may still be catching up in playing men's soccer, they've become world-class at watching it.

Hispanic audience represents untapped opportunity

The tournament has exposed a significant gap in advertiser strategy. In the 30 years since the US last hosted the World Cup, the Hispanic population has nearly tripled, with 45 million people speaking Spanish at home, making the US the second-largest Spanish-speaking population globally after Mexico.

Yet Spanish-language programming spend has increased from just 3% to 4% of total ad budgets over that same period.

Nearly 10 million of the viewers who watched the US opening match against Paraguay tuned in via Telemundo, demonstrating the Hispanic community's engagement with the US team specifically, not just teams from their countries of origin.

"It does oversimplify the group," said Orozco. "The group encompasses potentially people from 20 different countries. It can be hard to target individuals, and it's not as simple as just having Spanish-language content."

The complexity includes an increasingly bilingual community requiring nuanced messaging and diverse national origins spanning 20+ countries with different cultural touchpoints.

"I do believe marketers have still not been able to hit on the right way to communicate to the Hispanic community," said Orozco.

Listen to the full episode.

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