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Desktop/laptop Travel Sales, by Tariff Scenario
Source: EMARKETER Forecast, June 2025 - January 2026
Note: includes leisure and unmanaged business travel sales booked by US-based internet users via desktop/laptop, regardless of the method of payment or fulfillment
Additional Note: The “moderate tariffs” scenario assumes that US economic growth slows, but the downturn is limited due to partial tariff relief brought by trade negotiations with other countries. The “heavy tariffs” scenario assumes that broad US tariffs spark a global recession, leading to inflation, retaliation from other countries, and weakened business and consumer sentiment.
Methodology: Estimates are based on the analysis of data from other research firms and government agencies, historical trends, reported and estimated revenues from major online retailers, consumer online buying trends, macro-level economic conditions and internet and mobile adoption trends.